Writing

Separating Signal from Noise in Financial News

A 2% move in gold is notable. The same 2% in crude oil is routine. This post builds a statistical framework — standard deviation, z-scores, and the bell curve — to classify any market move as signal or noise in one calculation.

The Pessimist VC's 15-Point Kill List

A checklist of 15 structural risks that kill startups before product-market fit — from founder-market mismatch and regulatory landmines to unit economics that don't scale. Built from patterns across failed pitches.